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About

The Weather Report began around 2000 with some casual discussions among a small number of co-workers who were trying their best to combine their observations to get the most out of their Thrift Savings Plans at work.   This soon became an infrequent email message.  This led even later to word-of-mouth to a few others.   The current list is to over 4 dozen readers.

In dramatic fashion, the members of this group have managed to be guarded on the limitations of the upside, while being regularly warned and protected against the substantial downside that has devastated the portfolios of many others, including many experts who ‘didn’t see it coming’, or at least that’s what they tell the rest of us.  While we tend slightly to the conservative side of the risk scale, this is a conscious choice, since many of us realize that given the current long-term trends of the markets, a serious mistake now would result in having us pay the price possibly for the remainder of our lives.   Warren Buffet says, ‘ Rule #1 – Don’t lose money.  Rule #2 – Don’t forget rule #1.’

Go ahead, step out a little further if it’s your preference.  It’s likely that you find that you’ll still end up making one of the classic choices -either (a) eating well, or (b) sleeping well, but, you’re unlikely to comfortably do both at the same time.

These are NOT to be considered recommendations – the choice is always yours.  This is an unofficial ‘finger held to the wind’ of where I believe the winds are blowing.    This is what ‘I’ am doing only.

I use a combination of methods, which range from the following:

* a variety of carefully selected experts, with expertise in inter-market analysis, long-term to short-term cycles, financial and economic theory and/or history,

* my own ‘special’ one-of-a-kind spreadsheets and charts, updated almost daily,

* and short/medium/long range charts of world equity, bond and commodity markets, chosen from some of the best on the internet, i.e., they are quoted, referenced and used everywhere.

One of my primary references is the long-wave theory, created in the 1920’s by Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff.  Premier Vladimir Lenin asked Kondratieff to find the weaknesses in capitalism.  Kondratieff concluded that cycles exist in ranges or waves lasting roughly 17 years each.  This theory divides the economy into 4 basic phases.  The four waves would repeat about every 70 years.  (Notice all of the references to this period in comparison to the Great Depression.  This is not coincidence.)  Each wave has basic, but strong directional trends in interest rates, stock trends, commodity prices, debt levels.  According to this theory, we are now about half-way through wave 4, or, the ‘winter’ period, characterized by falling interest rates due to record debt levels, risky stock/equity which are following a record boom period, general economic weakness in recoveries and higher than normal structural risks.

My preference is on what is called technical analysis, which is based upon the action of the ‘numbers’ in the financial markets, as opposed to fundamental analysis, financial statements, etc.  Since everyone is ultimately concerned with the price of everything, this is where the focus has served me well and where I feel the focus should remain.

RR

 

DISCLAIMER

Weather Report is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

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