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10082014 October 9, 2014

Posted by easterntiger in economic history, economy, financial, gold, markets, oil, silver, stocks.
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Current Positions  (Slight Changes)

I(Intl) – exit; S(Small Cap) – exit; C(S&P) –exit

F(bonds) – up to 50%; G (money market) – remainder

Weekly Momentum Indicator (WMI) last 4 weeks, thru 10/07/14

(S&P100 compared to exactly 3 weeks before***)

-31.30, -2.82, -5.09, +7.63

(Today from 3 Fridays ago/2 Fri’s fm 4 Friday’s ago/3 Fri’s fm 5 Friday’s ago/4 Fri’s fm 6 Friday’s ago)

Imagine that it’s 4AM after a huge party. Many have gradually left (a) . All lights are still  on.  There are a couple of large groups still left, talking loudly and sipping on their final drinks. The bar is closed.  The crowds are so busy drinking and talking that they don’t notice that the band has played it’s last tune and has started packing up, all except the drummer, tapping a simple beat.  The room is being charged by the hour, so, there won’t be an announcer to tell anyone that it’s time to clear out; the meter is running.  Every 15 minutes, some guy named ‘Fed’ walks across the stage and tells everyone to hang around while he looks for another band. (It’s not coming.)  The groups cheer each time.  Outside, there are storms moving in.  Most attendees have anticipated the storm by leaving early (b). Those still there will either take their risks, driving through the storm (c), or, stay around to ‘ride it out’ (d).  In which group are you?  a, b, c or d?

Margin debt reversal

 Margin

Repeating from the previous two reports, an accurate count of margin debt, or, levels of borrowed money at all brokerage firms for each month is carefully watched by the financial media.  It’s this combination of a) margin debt, b) Fed money loaned to investment banks (declining), and c) stock buybacks by corporations (slight decline over last year) that have provided a vast majority of the power to the markets for much of the past 5 years. The result of margin debt figure through August is shown in the following chart, for comparison to all months of the past 3.5 years.


Update – Notice that the peak in debt for the year has STILL not exceeded the February high, after which the primary indexes channeled sideways, with no price appreciation, for 12 weeks. For the past nine months, the debt level has stalled under $466 million.  This STILL indicates that a primary source of fuel for the market (loans and borrowed money) has stalled and is not likely to resume.  When combined with the now diminishing portion of Fed stimulation through Quantitative Easing (QE), which ends on October 29th, this will remove the bulk of what has sustained the markets back up to the peaks above and below the peaks of 2000 and 2007, depending on the index.

Funds YTD

Here are the relative positions of the respective funds so far this year.

************Equity Funds**********           ******Bond Fund*******

S Fund                 I Fund          C Fund                       F Fund

YTD 7/16             7/16               7/16                       7/16

+4.12%                +4.01%        +7.17%                      +3.94%

YTD 10/7           10/7                 10/7                       10/7

-1.04%                -4.18%          +6.39%                     +5.53%

+/- F fund    +/- F fund      +/- F fund

-6.57%              -9.71%           +0.86%

In the table, consider the difference between how each fund differs from the F fund results, as what you are gaining, or losing, for the additional amount of risk that are a natural part of holding equity funds.

This weeks’ extreme volatility does nothing to mask the fact that current levels peaked several weeks ago. Most of the indexes are within a few points, high or low, of their 50 day averages.  European markets are all far below this average (they’re at a different party, one that’s already over). Today’s appearance of a reversal, (based upon that guy named ‘Fed’ walking across the stage),  of Monday’s downdraft results in the following net changes for 2 days: Dow Industrials, +3 points; S&P500, +3 points; S&P100, +1 point; Nasdaq Composite, +1 points.

Obviously, the numbers for this year are more favorable for the F fund than other funds.  Last year, the F fund trailed the other funds by a significant margin, and, for the last 3-year period. Surprisingly, the previous 3-year period saw the F fund double, triple, and more the returns of the other funds.  The equity funds promise more upside under some conditions.  The F fund has not produced a negative return in any one-year period over the past decade.  So, why is there so much more interest, each and every year, in chasing equity funds?  It’s due to the focus on the potential upside and ignorance  of the potential risk. It’s also where the majority of financial managers make their money.   Are you really getting paid enough in your returns to justify the additional risk within your personally chosen time frame? Can you afford to be wrong on the third equity peak since 2001?

Three major components of the I fund, the English FTSE, the French CAC and the German DAX, are back to the levels of their May ‘13, November ‘13, and December ‘13 levels, respectively; sideways for a year or more.

I am partially exiting the F fund temporarily.  It is now at one of it’s highest points in several years.  A simple reversal on technical measures would not be much of a surprise.  This is exactly what occurred in May of ‘13.   I will re-enter if equities continue their breakdown, forcing a run to the safety of bond assets, or, if a continuation of the uptrend strengthens.  A seasonal aspect in equities might lead to October weakness and a November/December rebound.

Less than a month from now the QE new-buying era ends, leaving the Fed bereft of the ability to convince traders it is backstopping stock markets. Harsh political realities make launching QE4 risky to the Fed’s very existence.   The imminent end of QE3 is the best catalyst we’ve seen for sparking a major correction or new bear market since QE3 was launched.  The precedent on this is crystal-clear, the ends of both QE1 and QE2.

The first major correction of this cyclical bull in mid-2010 was triggered when QE1’s buying was ending.  And the next major correction in mid-2011 erupted when QE2’s buying was ending. These once again were not trivial sell-offs, with SPY plunging 16.1% and 19.4%.  And the stock markets then were far less risky, overextended, overvalued, and complacent than they are today. QE3’s impending end is truly predictable, and ominous.

The bottom line is that stock markets rise and fall.  And thanks to the Fed’s gross distortions of psychology, today’s markets are overextended, overvalued, and epically complacent.  That means a major sell-off is long overdue to rebalance sentiment.  Best case if the bulls are right, it will be a major correction approaching 20% like at the ends of QE1 and QE2.  But far more likely is a new cyclical bear ultimately cutting stocks in half no later than 2015.

Interest Rates

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note

15-tnx

World Markets

Major Markets Composite

 MajMktComp

This composite index combines the ten largest world markets with equal weights into one index.

Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, UK and US

Individual markets around the world, including many of those in the Major Markets Composite Index, and several other key indexes, are shown individually on the next few pages. Each bar is a week, to smooth out daily ‘noise’.  Also note ‘rate of change’ on the black, wavy line at the top of each chart, indicating positive or negative momentum, above or below the horizontal line.

Europe

FTSE

9-ftseCAC

8-cac

DAX7-dax

US

 Russell 20005-rut

Dow Industrials1-indu

Nasdaq Composite4-compq  S&P 500 2-spx

Wilshire 50003-wlsh

ASIA

Shanghai Composite11-ssec

Singapore Straits13-stiHang Seng  12-hsi

SOUTH AMERICA

Bovespa

14-bvsp

Insider Selling

With Form 144, required by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), investors get clues to a corporate insider’s pattern of selling securities and pressure to sell. It’s a notice of the intent to sell restricted stock, typically acquired by corporate insiders or affiliates in a transaction not involving a public offering. These filings are shown daily on a Wall Street Journal blog.

As of this past Friday, the ratio of intended sales compared to intended purchases is at 51:1.  That’s 51 times as many intended sales as intended purchases.  Just about a month ago, that ratio was 47:1.  This filing also shows an additional ‘planned sales’ category.  When this category is combined with sales and then compared to purchases, the ratio of sales plus planned sales then compared to purchases more than triples to 173:1.  The technology category, for example, shows intended purchases at $81,161, with intended sales at $54,500,780, and planned sales at $139,310,116, which is 2,387:1.  This is a much greater ratio than the mixture of 10 major market sectors. Obviously, those with the connections have no intention of holding on to their large shares of stocks at these price levels.  This is definitely not the kind of ‘bull market’ that some of us are led to believe by the financial media.  Speaking of the financial media, apparently the word is getting around that these talking heads aren’t to be trusted.  The viewership ratings are now at 21-year lows.  This speaks directly to the degree of confidence that the general public has of these programs and their prospects for guiding retail investors toward their investment goals.

All-Time Highs

It’s taken just over a week to erase the significance of so many all-time highs, with market levels now back to where they were in early June.

In hindsight, with these highs now erased and now insignificant, how often does a headline, or, a news story telling you that there was another all-time high make you certain that you’re ‘missing out’?

But wait!  Let’s get one thing straight.

1 – http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2014/07/23/apologies-but-the-sp-500-is-not-at-an-all-time-high/

2  – Will Hausman, an economics professor at the College of William and Mary, calculates that the S&P 500 hit its true high — its inflation-adjusted high — of 2,120 on January 14, 1999.

To put that another way, the market still needs to rise about 150 more points — nearly 8% — to be on par with where it was in the late 1990s.

But, back to the non-story, there were at least 7 ‘so-called’, all-time closing highs since the last report.

S&P 500 inches to new high … but not 2,000 By Ben Rooney  @ben_rooney July 24, 2014: 4:25 PM ET

S&P 500 MAKES NEW ALL-TIME HIGH By Myles Udland August 21, 2014 4:00 PM

S&P 500 sets all-time high in intraday trading  Associated Press and IBJ Staff August 25, 2014

S&P 500 MAKES A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH Aug. 29, 2014, 4:00 PM

S&P 500 Ends Week at Another Record High with Gains for Fifth Week in a Row By Jeffrey Strain, September 6th, 2014AllTimeHighs

In this chart, the bar on the far right represents the average daily range of the S&P 500, from high to low, for the 3 month time frame of July 3rd to October 3rd.  The 7 bars to the left represent the increment of each new ‘all-time high’ in this same period, over the previous ‘all-time high’. Clearly, the new high was of such insignificance that it takes almost all of the 7 highs together to equal one daily high to low range.  The ‘good news’ about these highs was all ‘fluff’.  Now, they’re all gone.

What is never apparent in the news is just how much each high is above the previous high.  Is it a point?  Two points?  Or, is it twenty?  Waiting 4,5,6 weeks for another couple of points?  Is it wise?  It’s important, because with both the completion of Fed tapering (lower liquidity), and, the flattening of margin debt (lower cash sources) each week of additional equity exposure for the potential gain is also more exposure to the risk of losing it, and, quite often, losing it more quickly than it was gained.

Case in point – a 2% drop on Sept 29th and 30th was the equivalent of losing 25% of the entire gain for the year.

Case in point – Friday’s closing high, even after a relatively strong bounce for that day, was still LOWER than the lows of the 4 of the last 5 weeks, and. lower than the highs of, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 and 15 weeks ago.

On the equities side, we’re going sideways on the strongest chart (C fund), and, drifting downward on the weakest charts (S and I).  The S fund is lower than the previous peaks in  March, June and early September.  The I fund is back to where it was in early February.

A final point on the ‘all-time high’ myth.  To go along with (1) the Forbes article, and (2) the quote from the William and Mary economics professor above, here is the inflation adjusted chart, using August 2014 ‘constant’ dollars, of the S&P500, from 1877.  Notice the current position, still below the 2000 high.

RealS&P

Source: http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price/

Dollar

 DollarThe U.S. Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its most recent period of quantitative easing, or QE (that is, rapid expansion of the money supply). By purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, the Federal Reserve has spent the past several years expanding its balance sheet dramatically.

Now, as the current round of QE ends, the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its unprecedented bond-buying spree. All other things being equal, this would mean decreased demand for Treasuries, and higher interest rates. Clearly, the U.S. government wants to keep its borrowing costs low. So with the Fed withdrawing from QE, how else could the U.S. government encourage demand for its bonds?

Other nations and currency blocs are still on the QE path. Japan’s vigorous QE is ongoing, and may increase. The European Central Bank (ECB) has so far been prevented from implementing outright QE by the resistance of Germany; but it is likely that Germany will eventually relent and the ECB will start QE as well.

All of the money created by the world’s central banks is looking for a home where it will earn a return — without being eroded by inflation. And right now, its best option is to buy assets denominated in U.S. Dollars. To some extent, this will be U.S. stocks, especially large-cap, high-quality companies. However, much of this money will flow into U.S. Treasury bonds.

A U.S. Dollar that is increasing in value may draw global financial flows into the U.S., support the demand for U.S. Treasuries, and help keep the U.S. government’s borrowing costs low.

The recent downside action in stocks may have begun with a German economic report.   The German Industrial Production declined 4 % while their Factory Orders had a 5.7 % decline as well. The International Monetary Fund topped it off with a lower projection of global economic growth from 4.0 % to 3.8 % next year.  The IMF further had concern about the geopolitical tensions translating into the stock market reaching “frothy” levels.  Contagion fears haunt the market with sentiment that the European Central Bank will not be able to add enough stimulus to increase inflation and stir the economic growth.   Their falling Euro FX should prompt better exports and a boost to their economy next to the stronger US Dollar.

Of course, a rising Dollar will also likely have negative effects if the dollar stays too strong for too long. These would take some time to manifest.

A higher Dollar relative to other currencies will make U.S. exports more expensive to customers abroad, and will hurt U.S. corporate profits — the more business a company does abroad, the more it will hurt. Ultimately, over the next few quarters, a Dollar that is appreciating strongly against other currencies such as the Pound, Euro, and Yen would be a modest drag on U.S. growth. Foreign goods would be cheaper, and the U.S. trade balance would deteriorate.

Oil

 Oil

Many globally traded commodities, especially oil, are denominated in Dollars. A stronger Dollar against other currencies therefore has the effect of making those commodities more expensive for non-U.S. customers, and leads to a decline in demand. We are seeing this play out in the price of crude oil.

Also, in the bigger oil picture, true supply and demand does not lie. Strong, vibrant, well-distributed world-wide growth would not produce an oil chart such as the one above.  Oil prices are range-bound since 2011.  Relatively stable oil prices have simply not served as enough of a catalyst for either economic stability or strong growth.  Notice how even the lowest curve, at the bottom of the green area, appears to project even more price weakness/lower prices.

Precious Metals

Precious metals in the form of gold and silver have appreciated by as much as 493% and 607% respectively at their peaks in 2011/12 from their lows in 1998. They are still up over 225% and 300%, respectively, as of today from that time. They are still favored by many who believe that higher intrinsic value will be further realized over the next 10 years. This is due to the combination of continued stress on paper assets, such as stocks and real estate, as well as consequences of escalating central bank expansion of fiat currencies.  This puts higher value on investments that are of limited supply and universal acceptance.  Look for more information on the significance of precious metals under my ‘About’ tab, under the long-wave economic theory.

Gold

 Gold

The soaring US dollar and the prospect of rising interest rates in the US have crushed the metals –both precious and industrial- to the lowest prices they have seen in several months. So far, there is no price action to suggest that this has ended.

A drop to either side of $1,180/oz. fol-lowed by a reversal could create a triple bottom on the weekly and monthly time frames. This could provide a base for a substantial rebound.

Conversely, a clean break below last year’s low and a close below the rising monthly rising 100-bar MA for the first time in a dozen years would be a very bearish event. IF that happens, gold could be doomed to hit the psychological $1,000/oz. mark for the first time in five years. I said several years ago that gold would be a screaming buy at that point.  At it’s peak, it nearly doubled from that point.

Silver

 SilverSilver slumped to a new four-year low of $16.85 this week. Based on a technical wave count, technical support could manifest somewhere around $16/oz. At this price, the decline from the July peak would be 1.618 the size of the decline from the February peak to the May low.

Failure to reverse or even slow down near the sixteen dollar level could indicate that silver is on track for the 2010 low of $14.65.

If the 2010 low is breached, silver may drop another dollar and try for the rising 200-bar Moving Average on the monthly time frame around $13.515.

A sustained close above the 2013 lows could cause a short-covering rally and run the December silver up to the Fibonacci .618 retracement of the decline from the July peak. Currently, this Fibonacci resistance line is located at $19.91.

Four decades of price history indicates that silver has a strong downward bias in the month of October.

As pointed out earlier, dollar strength is responsible for depressing prices of many commodities.  These lower prices are somewhat deceptive for that reason.

According to a report produced for the Silver Institute and created by Thomson Reuters GFMS, in 2013, the silver supply fell to 985.1 million ounces, down from 1,005.3 million ounces a year earlier—a two-percent drop in production. (Source: The Silver Institute web site, last accessed October 1, 2014.) But demand for silver was increasing over the same period. This continuation of falling supplies and steady demand points toward higher prices over the long term. A return by gold to it’s recent high would offer a gain of 60%.  A return by silver to it’s recent high would offer a return of 194%.

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